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 		[Investec Wealth & Investment]

 		 
 		 

 		 
 		Macro Monday

 		 
 		13 May 2024

 		 

 		[Monthly View]

 		 

 		 

 		Global economy rebounds; signs of stress in the US; China's social
finance numbers in focus; what the improvements at Eskom and Transnet
mean for the economy

 		 

 		Global growth is rebounding, but there are signs of stress building
in the US, notes Chief Investment Strategist Chris Holdsworth. He also
looks at the latest social finance numbers in China and what this
implies for growth in the world's second largest economy, and he
discusses the outlook for European rates. Finally, he examines the
implications for the SA economy of the improvements at Eskom and
Transnet.

 		 

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 		[Macro Monday]
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 		Hong Kong leads gains in Asia; US edges up despite declines in tech
shares; precious metals lift JSE

 	* Asia-Pacific markets were mostly lower this morning, with only
Hong Kong, with a 0.7% rise, enjoying meaningful gains. China’s CSI
300 was down by less than 0.1% while Seoul was also down by less than
0.1%. 
 	* Sydney was up 0.1% and Tokyo was off 0.1%.
 	* The moves in Asia followed the release of China’s inflation
numbers for April, which showed the consumer price index rising by
slightly more than markets had expected.
 	* At the same time, Chinese credit numbers showed a drop in demand
in April.
 	* US equity markets edged up on Friday, continuing the gains of the
previous week as the Dow extended its winning streak into an eighth
session, adding 0.3% on the day. The S&P 500 rose 0.2% while the
Nasdaq ended slightly lower, with many of the so-called Magnificent
Seven tech counters down.
 	* The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose however, ending at 4.5%.
 	* US markets were reacting to expectations of possible rate cuts
later this year after recent weak economic data. Friday saw a key
index of consumer sentiment falling, and this followed recent weak
data on the employment front.
 	* However, the consumer sentiment numbers also showed a jump in the
inflation expectations component.
 	* European markets closed higher on Friday, led by the Stoxx 600,
which ended 0.8% up while London’s FTSE 100 hit a new record high,
after first quarter GDP numbers showed that the UK had exited its
recession.
 	* The JSE rose 1.2% on Friday thanks to a 2.6% rise in resources,
while financials rose 1.3% and industrials were up 0.4%.
 	* While there were gains across the board, precious metals stood out
with Anglo Platinum up 7.5%, Implats up 5.8%, Gold Fields up 4.1%,
Sasol up 4% and Sibanye up 3.1%.
 	* Outside of the mining shares Remgro rose 3.7%, while Growth Point
and Absa both added 2.5%.
 	* The JSE opened higher this morning, with industrials and
financials both up.
 	* The rand continued to gain against the US dollar and was trading
at R18.38 this morning.

 		 

 		 

 		 

 		 

 		 

 		 

 		Company results and updates

 	* Raubex reported HEPS of 476.3c for the year to February, an
increase of 21.3%. A final dividend of 92cps was declared.
 	* Vodacom reported HEPS of 846 cents for the year to March decline
of 10.8%. The full dividend for the year was 590cps, down 11.9%.
 	* Calgro M3 reported HEPS of 189.87 cents for the year to February,
an increase of 24%. A maiden dividend of 9.49cps was declared.
 	* We Buy Cars reported core HEPS of 119.9 cents for the six months
to March, an increase of 26.1%.

 		 

 		 

 		 

 		 

 		 

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